Poker Odds (Probability)
What are Odds?
Odds are used to express a probability of an event to come. When playing Poker, this term is used, to express the probability to hit a card needed to win a Hand on the turn, river or both. When a player is All-In before the last card, you can use All-In Odds to determine the probability of each player winning.
Because probabilities are often expressed differently in Anglo-Saxon areas (USA, England, Australia...) as they are in most parts of European Continent, we would like to quickly make sure you understand the difference, too (see the end of this article).
First we're going to show you, how to calculate Odds correctly. To understand this explanation, you have to be familiar with the concept of Outs. We are using the same examples as we did in the Poker Outs Article.
Why should you understand the concept of Odds?
It is absolutely vital to understand this concept, in order to put the Odds in Relation to the Pot Odds. This relation of Odds to Pot Odds can be used to make mathematically correct decision in Poker. If you do not understand this concept, you will be a guaranteed losing Player in the long run! Understanding this concept, you will be able to confidently make correct calls. On the other hand, you will also know how much to raise in order to make calling a mistake for your opponents. Poker is all about inducing your opponent to make mistakes.
How does one calculate the Odds?
Expample 1
Player 1 has   and Player 2  
The Flop:   
In the Outs Article we assessed, that Player 1 currently has 9 Outs. Player 1 knows his two cards and also the three cards on the Flop. Hence there are 47 unknown cards to Player 1. The probability of the Turn Card being a Club consequently is 9/47. Expressed in in a percentage the odds are 19.14 % of Player 1 hitting a Club on the turn. The other way of expressing the odds is 9 to 38. There are 9 cards that help Player 1 and 38 that don't. Thus, the odds of Player 1 hitting a Club on the turn are 9 to 38.
Were Player 1 to know that his adversary did not have two Club Cards, the Odds would be 9/45 (45 Cards, he does not know), which would be exactly 20 % or 1 to 4.
Expample 2
Player 1 has   and Player 2 has 
The Flop:    and the Turn Card was the 
We assessed that Player 1 has 6 Outs in this Situation, but probably thinks he has 8 Outs. 46 of the remaining cards are unknown to Player 1. Thus, he thinks his odds of completing the Straight on the River are 8/46 or 17.39 %. Were he to know that his opponents holding is exactly KK , he would determine his odds to be 6/44 (44 because now 8 of the 52 Cards are known to him) or 13.64 %.
Expample 3
Player 1 has  and Player 2 has 
The Flop:   
|
|
Player 2 has 15 Outs. Consequently, his Chance of drawing the winning Hand (Flush oder Straight) on the Turn is 15/47, oder 31.91%.
Other way of Expressing the Odds
Anyone who has read an English Poker Book reads sentences like 'you are getting odds of 1 to 4.' oder similar. The facts are exactly the same as with percentage, but the Result is expressed in a different way. In our Expample 1 Player 1 had a 19.17 % Chance to hit his Flush on the Turn. Especially in the US people have a different way of thinking about odds. An American will think '9 Cards in the Deck will help me, the other 38 Cards will not help me. Hence, my Odds are 9 to 38.' 9 to 38 corresponds to 1 to zu 4.22. The 19.27 % correspont to 1 to 4.22. Especially for beginners, this 'American way' is very recommendable, as it is quite easy and you do not have to think about percentages.
A couple of examples:
25 % correspond to 1 to 3 Odds.
20 % correspond to 1 to 4 Odds.
10 % correspond to 1 to 9 Odds.
Back to the Poker Strategy Section
|
