Poker All-In Odds (All-In Probabilities)
Playing No Limit Hold'em it is quite common that a player goes All-In before the last community card has been dealt. In order to take the right decision, you have to be aware of the mathematical basics:
- The probability, that you will have the best hand after the last community card is revealed
- The amount of chips (resp. money) you have to pay, and the pot odds that can be related of this situation.
Before you continue reading this article, you should have read and understood the following articles about Outs, Odds and Pot Odds.
When playing in a Cash Game, the two aspects mentioned above are sufficient, to take a mathematically correct decision. In a cash game the mathematically correct decision is in the long run the profitable decision! Playing in a tournament, the situation of the tournament is very important, too. Let's mention a couple of examples:
- In a satellite Tournament 7 of the 8 remaining players will win a ticket worth 108$. The player who finishes in 8th position does not get anything. The Chip Leader and you have by far the most chips. The two shortest stacks will be All-In, the next time they are in the big blind. The Chip Leader goes All-In. You have AA. What do you do? Well, in this case it is not about winning as many chips as possible, but the target is to win the 108$ Tournament ticket. This is one of the extremely seldom situations where it is mathematically correct to fold AA.
- Just before reaching the prize money (bubble) there are often situations, where pots are played 'mathematically' incorrectly. This is why you should 'bully' your opponents when you are chip leader on the bubble. Please read the Independent Chip Model Article for more information on this subject.
So, let's get back to the All-In Odds:
There are four situations a player can go All-In:
- Before the flop (preflop)
- On the Flop
- On the Turn
- On the River
The probabilities of typical situations before the flop are listed in our Poker Documents section. You should know the probabilities of these typical preflop situations off by heart.
Example 1 (preflop)
You are playing a Sit & Go Tournament. There are 5 players at the table. You are Chip Leader with 5'000 Chips, the average stack is 3'000 Chips, the blinds are 200/400. You are on the big blind. Every one folds, but the Small Blind pushes All-In and raises to a total of 800 Chips. The Pot now contains 1'200 Chips (his 800 and your 400 you posted as the big blind). You have   . What do you do?
You have to invest 400 chips to win the 1'200 Chips already in the pot. The Pot Odds are 1 to 3 or 25%. You need a hand that wins in 25% or more of the situations you call. This is a clean-cut case for our Peflop All-In Odds Table of typical Texas Hold'em Starting Hands. First we have to determine which possible hands our opponent could possibly have pushed All-In with. He has so few chips that he had to push All-In with any two cards. And even if your opponent has AK, your chances of winning the hand are still 35%. The only hands you could run into which do not offer you 25% odds, are AA, KK, QQ and JJ. Even if your opponent has you dominated (for example A9, K9, KJ or similar), you still get just over the 35% you need to call. In this situation you should even call with 32 off suit, the worst possible hole cards in a heads-up All-In Situation! Only beginners fold in this situation.
Example 2 (on the Flop)
7 Players remain in this Sit & GO tournament situation, you have 2'000 Chips und just had to post 300 of them in the Big Blind. The first 3 players reach the prize money. A very aggressive player (you have seen that he raises no matter of his position if he has an Ace). He raises from first position with 750 Chips (before this hand he had a total of 3'500 Chips). Every one folds, also the Small Blinds. You call with   , there is a total of 1'650 Chips in the pot. You still have 1'250 Chips. He has 2'750 Chips.
The flop looks like this:   
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You check (whether this move makes sense or not or the preflop call was a good idea, we shall not discuss at this point). Your opponent moves All-In! He pushes his remaining 2'750 Chips. On the screen it says that there are 4'400 Chips in the pot now. Attention! You can only win the chips that you can cover with your own stack. Because you only have 1'250 Chip left, he in fact raised only by 1'250 chips. For your calculation, there are only 2'900 chips in the pot. The Pot Odds are 1'250 to 2'900 or 1 to 2.32. You need a 30% chance of winning the hand, to make the call a profitable move. If your opponent really has the ace, you have a 35% chance of winning the hand. Also if he has KK, QQ or JJ, the Odds are about 35% that you are going to win the hand. If your opponent flopped a set, you still have a 25% chance of winning the hand. If your opponent has 88 or 99, which is also quite plausible, then your chances would be about 45%, as every ten also beats your opponent and you have more Outs. Should your opponent be 'bluffing' with KQ, then you even are a slight favorite of winning this hand. So, only if you are 100% sure your opponent has flopped the set you should fold. Mathematically you should call here. An other thing to think about is if you fold, you have 1'250 chips left and have to find a spot to double up pretty quickly. There are seven players left, so you are not near the prize money yet. Pretty obvious call!
You should know the Odds of All-In Situations off by heart, to be able to take correct decisions. Playing Online-Poker you usually only have about 20 seconds time to take your decision. You just do not have the time to do all the calculations. The following two documents may help you:
 Preflop All-In Odds of typical Texas Hold'em Starting Hands, PDF, 108 KB.
Preflop All-In Odds of typical Texas Hold'em Situations on the Flop, PDF, 113 KB.
We recommend that you invest some time in getting accustomed to all kind of All-In situations. The CardPlayer Poker Odds Calculator is a very helpful tool.
The probability of All-In Situations on the Turn is pretty simple to calculate. Count your Outs that you have or your opponent could have. The sum of Outs multiplied by two is a pretty simple and accurate formula. When calling an All-In on the river, think about the pot odds the situation is giving you and the probability of each holding your opponent could have the way he played the hand.
Back to the Poker Strategy Section
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